Predicting future temperature with machine learning methods.
National Centers for Environmental Information Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD). See GSOD README for information on how to obtain it and/or its terms and restrictions.
In this project, we are mainly using station 722860 since it has a long
recording history. To run the notebooks, place the dataset at runtime/GSOD,
so that runtime/GSOD/2021 contains .op or .op.gz data files.
For example, runtime/GSOD/2021/583620-99999-2021.op.gz should exist.
Use those Notebooks by this order to start.
gsod.py: Dataset helper and common functions.00-Search_Stations.ipynb: Some helpers to find good stations (optional).01-FFT.ipynb: Real Fourier transform analysis of the recurrent period (optional).10-EMD.ipynb: Complete empirical mode decomposition of periods and trends.11-LSTM.ipynb: Building a long short-term memory model.12-MLP.ipynb: Building a multilayer perceptron model. (Model by @stevenli-phoenix)13-LSTM_Only.ipynb: A comparative LSTM-only approach (optional).14-Baseline_and_LR.ipynb: Building a long short-term memory model.15-ARIMA_and_SVM.ipynb: Comparative ARIMA and SVM models (optional).20-Ensemble.ipynb: Combining different models for different mode functions.
Early experiments. Kept here for reference.
ClimateMarkov.ipynb: First-degree Markov-like model.ClimateMarkov2.ipynbAny-degree Markov-like model.ClimateDiscreteMarkov.ipynbAny-degree discrete Markov-like model.
BibTeX entry:
@inproceedings{10.1117/12.2637187,
author = {Maiyun Zhang and Shuyu Li and Yiqi Wang},
title = {Short-term temperature prediction based on hybrid {CEEMDAN}, neural networks, and linear regression methods},
volume = {12285},
booktitle = {International Conference on Advanced Algorithms and Neural Networks (AANN 2022)},
editor = {Rajeev Tiwari},
organization = {International Society for Optics and Photonics},
publisher = {SPIE},
pages = {301 -- 308},
year = {2022},
doi = {10.1117/12.2637187},
URL = {https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2637187}
}Private until the project is finished. TBD.