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seedPapers.bib
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@article{burke_climate_2015,
title = {Climate and {Conflict}},
volume = {7},
issn = {1941-1383, 1941-1391},
url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430},
abstract = {We review the emerging literature on climate and conflict. We consider multiple types of human conflict, including both interpersonal conflict, such as assault and murder, and intergroup conflict, including riots and civil war. We discuss key methodological issues in estimating causal relationships and largely focus on natural experiments that exploit variation in climate over time. Using a hierarchical meta-analysis that allows us to both estimate the mean effect and quantify the degree of variability across 55 studies, we find that deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase conflict risk. Contemporaneous temperature has the largest average impact, with each 1s increase in temperature increasing interpersonal conflict by 2.4\% and intergroup conflict by 11.3\%. We conclude by highlighting research priorities, including a better understanding of the mechanisms linking climate to conflict, societies’ ability to adapt to climatic changes, and the likely impacts of future global warming.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Annual Review of Economics},
author = {Burke, Marshall and Hsiang, Solomon M. and Miguel, Edward},
month = aug,
year = {2015},
pages = {577--617},
}
@article{koubi_climate_2019,
title = {Climate {Change} and {Conflict}},
volume = {22},
doi = {10.1146/ANNUREV-POLISCI-050317-070830},
abstract = {The link between climate change and conflict has been discussed intensively in academic literature during the past decade. This review aims to provide a clearer picture of what the research community currently has to say with regard to this nexus. It finds that the literature has not detected a robust and general effect linking climate to conflict onset. Substantial agreement exists that climatic changes contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways. In particular, the literature shows that climatic conditions breed conflict in fertile grounds: in regions dependent on agriculture and in combination and interaction with other socioeconomic and political factors such as a low level of economic development and political marginalization. Future research should continue to investigate how climatic changes interact with and/or are conditioned by socioeconomic, political, and demographic settings to cause conflict and uncover the causal mechanisms that link these two phenomena.},
number = {1},
journal = {Annual Review of Political Science (Annual Reviews)},
author = {Koubi, Vally},
year = {2019},
pages = {343--360},
}
@article{balsari_climate_2020,
title = {Climate {Change}, {Migration}, and {Civil} {Strife}},
volume = {7},
issn = {2196-5412},
url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40572-020-00291-4},
doi = {10.1007/s40572-020-00291-4},
abstract = {Purpose of Review In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement.},
language = {en},
number = {4},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Current Environmental Health Reports},
author = {Balsari, Satchit and Dresser, Caleb and Leaning, Jennifer},
month = dec,
year = {2020},
pages = {404--414},
}
@article{sharifi_climate-induced_2021,
title = {Climate-induced stressors to peace: a review of recent literature},
volume = {16},
issn = {1748-9326},
shorttitle = {Climate-induced stressors to peace},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abfc08},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abfc08},
abstract = {Climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat to global peace and security. This paper intends to provide a better understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and events that undermine peace through a systematic review of recent literature. It highlights major methodological approaches adopted in the literature, elaborates on the geographic focus of the research at the nexus of climate change and peace, and provides further information on how various climatic stressors, such as extreme temperature, floods, sea-level rise, storms, and water stress may be linked to different events that undermine peace (e.g. civil conflict, crime, intercommunal violence, interstate conflict, political conflict, and social conflict) through direct and indirect pathways. Results confirm previous findings that statistical techniques and qualitative case studies are dominant methods in climate-conflict research but show that there has been an increase in the geographic information system based risk analyses and qualitative comparative analyses in the recent years. In line with previous reviews, results show that the literature is mainly focused on certain regions of the world and several major regions that have experienced numerous conflicts over the past few years and/or are vulnerable to adverse climatic events are understudied. However, a new finding is that, in the past few years, there has been an increasing focus on Asia, which contrasts with previous reviews that show an African focus in the literature. Also, there is an unbalanced attention to different climatic stressors and peace-related events. Interactions between water stress/extreme temperature and civil and interstate conflicts have received more attention. A major finding is that, only under certain conditions climatic stressors may act as driving forces or aggravating factors. In fact, there is a strong consensus that climate change is less likely to undermine peace in isolation from a wide range of contextual socio-economic and institutional factors such as political instability, poor governance, poverty, homogeneous livelihood structures, and ethnic fractionalization. However, such contextual factors can contribute to undermining peace via either direct or indirect pathways. The former may occur through direct psychological/ physiological effects of climatic impacts or via competition over scarce resources. In contrast, in indirect pathways climate change may lead to conflict through diminishing livelihood capacities and/or inducing migration. In addition to synthesizing literature on contextual factors and direct/indirect pathways, the review identifies gaps that need further research.},
language = {en},
number = {7},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
author = {Sharifi, Ayyoob and Simangan, Dahlia and Lee, Chui Ying and Reyes, Sheryl Rose and Katramiz, Tarek and Josol, Jairus Carmela and Dos Muchangos, Leticia and Virji, Hassan and Kaneko, Shinji and Tandog, Thea Kersti and Tandog, Leorence and Islam, Moinul},
month = jul,
year = {2021},
pages = {073006},
}
@article{sakaguchi_climate_2017,
title = {Climate {Wars}? {A} {Systematic} {Review} of {Empirical} {Analyses} on the {Links} between {Climate} {Change} and {Violent} {Conflict}},
volume = {19},
issn = {1521-9488, 1468-2486},
shorttitle = {Climate {Wars}?},
url = {http://academic.oup.com/isr/article/19/4/622/4349661},
doi = {10.1093/isr/vix022},
abstract = {Global climate change has been connected to myriad societal and environmental consequences, including the potential for a rise in violent conflict. To advance understanding of violent conflict as a threat, we undertake a systematic review of peer-reviewed, empirical analyses examining the potential links between climate change and violent conflict. The review reveals three key findings. First, the reviewed studies offer mixed and varied evidence for links between climate change and violence. A majority of studies find evidence that climate variables are associated with higher levels of violent conflict. However, this general pattern masks many subtleties and countertrends that complicate moving to a simple conclusion that the link between climate change and violence is robust. Second, most studies hypothesize an indirect relationship between climate change and violent conflict mediated by and/or interacting with a complex set of intervening variables; however, these causal pathways have only weak empirical support. Third, the empirical basis of the literature has important limitations. Study findings appear to be sensitive to differing methodological choices, making systematic assessments inconclusive.},
language = {en},
number = {4},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {International Studies Review},
author = {Sakaguchi, Kendra and Varughese, Anil and Auld, Graeme},
month = dec,
year = {2017},
pages = {622--645},
}
@article{scartozzi_reframing_2021,
title = {Reframing {Climate}-{Induced} {Socio}-{Environmental} {Conflicts}: {A} {Systematic} {Review}},
volume = {23},
issn = {1521-9488, 1468-2486},
shorttitle = {Reframing {Climate}-{Induced} {Socio}-{Environmental} {Conflicts}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/23/3/696/5906666},
doi = {10.1093/isr/viaa064},
abstract = {This article draws a comprehensive map of conflict climate change scholarship. It uses visualizations and descriptive statistics to trace the temporal, spatial, and topical evolution of the field of study via a bibliometric analysis of more than six hundred publications. It then proceeds to summarize findings, theoretical explanations, and methodological approaches. Overall, this systematic review shows a remarkable inconsistency of evidence among publications. As a way forward, this article recommends future research to use computational models, informed by a social-ecological perspective, to better explore the link between climate change and conflict. Resumen: En este artículo se traza un mapa integral de la erudición conflictiva del cambio climático. Se utilizan visualizaciones y estadísticas descriptivas para rastrear la evolución temporal, espacial y temática del campo de estudio mediante un análisis bibliométrico de más de seiscientas publicaciones. Luego, continúa con un resumen de los hallazgos, las explicaciones teóricas y los enfoques metodológicos. En términos generales, esta revisión sistemática muestra una notable incoherencia de evidencias entre las publicaciones. En este artículo se recomiendan investigaciones a futuro para utilizar los modelos computacionales, informados con una perspectiva socioecológica, a fin de explorar mejor la conexión entre el cambio climático y los conflictos. Extrait: Cet article offre une représentation complète des recherches portant sur les conflits liés au changement climatique. Il utilise des visualisations et des statistiques descriptives pour retracer l’évolution temporelle, spatiale et thématique de ce domaine d’étude via une analyse bibliométrique de plus de six cents publications. Il résume ensuite les constatations, explications théoriques et approches méthodologiques. Globalement, cette synthèse systématique montre une incohérence remarquable des preuves entre les publications. Pour aller de l’avant, cet article recommande que les recherches futures passent par des modèles informatiques éclairés par une perspective socio-écologique pour mieux explorer le lien entre le changement climatique et les conflits.},
language = {en},
number = {3},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {International Studies Review},
author = {Scartozzi, Cesare M},
month = aug,
year = {2021},
pages = {696--725},
}
@article{gleditsch_whither_2012,
title = {Whither the weather? {Climate} change and conflict},
volume = {49},
issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
shorttitle = {Whither the weather?},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343311431288},
doi = {10.1177/0022343311431288},
abstract = {Until recently, most writings on the relationship between climate change and security were highly speculative. The IPCC assessment reports to date offer little if any guidance on this issue and occasionally pay excessive attention to questionable sources. The articles published in this special issue form the largest collection of peer-reviewed writings on the topic to date. The number of such studies remains small compared to those that make up the natural science base of the climate issue, and there is some confusion whether it is the effect of ‘climate’ or ‘weather’ that is being tested. The results of the studies vary, and firm conclusions cannot always be drawn. Nevertheless, research in this area has made considerable progress. More attention is being paid to the specific causal mechanisms linking climate change to conflict, such as changes in rainfall and temperature, natural disasters, and economic growth. Systematic climate data are used in most of the articles and climate projections in some. Several studies are going beyond statebased conflict to look at possible implications for other kinds of violence, such as intercommunal conflict. Overall, the research reported here offers only limited support for viewing climate change as an important influence on armed conflict. However, framing the climate issue as a security problem could possibly influence the perceptions of the actors and contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
author = {Gleditsch, Nils Petter},
month = jan,
year = {2012},
pages = {3--9},
}
@article{buhaug_climate-driven_2023,
title = {Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century},
volume = {39},
issn = {22120963},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221209632200078X},
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2022.100471},
abstract = {Anthropogenic climate change is commonly characterized as a threat to human security. How ever, the extent to which and under what conditions climate impacts and responses may produce severe risks to peace have seen less systematically assessment to date. This essay provides a conceptual discussion of what risks to peace entail and how such risks might be considered se vere, acknowledging that perceptions, values, and social scale must be grappled with in the identification of severity. Informed by available empirical research, the essay then explores the conditions under which climate-related risks could become severe during this century. Three illustrative scenarios based on different assumptions about climate-driven risks and risks related to social responses to climate change serve to illustrate how alternative warming and adaptation trajectories will have distinct implications for the prospect of future peace. The essay ends by reflecting on some implications for future research needs.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
author = {Buhaug, Halvard and Benjaminsen, Tor A. and Gilmore, Elisabeth A. and Hendrix, Cullen S.},
year = {2023},
pages = {100471},
}
@article{mach_directions_2020,
title = {Directions for {Research} on {Climate} and {Conflict}},
volume = {8},
issn = {2328-4277, 2328-4277},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001532},
doi = {10.1029/2020EF001532},
abstract = {The potential links between climate and conflict are well studied, yet disagreement about the specific mechanisms and their significance for societies persists. Here, we build on assessment of the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. They include (1) deepening insight into climate‐conflict linkages and conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response options, responsive to ongoing decision‐making, and (4) evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to manage climate‐conflict links. The implications of this expanding scientific domain unfold in real time.},
language = {en},
number = {7},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Earth's Future},
author = {Mach, Katharine J. and Adger, W. Neil and Buhaug, Halvard and Burke, Marshall and Fearon, James D. and Field, Christopher B. and Hendrix, Cullen S. and Kraan, Caroline M. and Maystadt, Jean‐Francois and O'Loughlin, John and Roessler, Philip and Scheffran, Jürgen and Schultz, Kenneth A. and Von Uexkull, Nina},
month = jul,
year = {2020},
pages = {e2020EF001532},
}
@article{von_uexkull_security_2021,
title = {Security implications of climate change: {A} decade of scientific progress},
volume = {58},
issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
shorttitle = {Security implications of climate change},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343320984210},
doi = {10.1177/0022343320984210},
abstract = {The study of security implications of climate change has developed rapidly from a nascent area of academic inquiry into an important and thriving research field that traverses epistemological and disciplinary boundaries. Here, we take stock of scientific progress by benchmarking the latest decade of empirical research against seven core research priorities collectively emphasized in 35 recent literature reviews. On the basis of this evaluation, we discuss key contributions of this special issue. Overall, we find that the research community has made important strides in specifying and evaluating plausible indirect causal pathways between climatic conditions and a wide set of conflictrelated outcomes and the scope conditions that shape this relationship. Contributions to this special issue push the research frontier further along these lines. Jointly, they demonstrate significant climate impacts on social unrest in urban settings; they point to the complexity of the climate–migration–unrest link; they identify how agricultural production patterns shape conflict risk; they investigate understudied outcomes in relation to climate change, such as interstate claims and individual trust; and they discuss the relevance of this research for user groups across academia and beyond. We find that the long-term implications of gradual climate change and conflict potential of policy responses are important remaining research gaps that should guide future research.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
author = {Von Uexkull, Nina and Buhaug, Halvard},
month = jan,
year = {2021},
pages = {3--17},
}
@article{buhaug_vicious_2021,
title = {Vicious {Circles}: {Violence}, {Vulnerability}, and {Climate} {Change}},
volume = {46},
issn = {1543-5938, 1545-2050},
shorttitle = {Vicious {Circles}},
url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708},
doi = {10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708},
abstract = {Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen have harbored severe humanitarian crises, compounded by climate-related hazards. These cases epitomize the powerful but presently incompletely appreciated links between vulnerability, conflict, and climate-related impacts. In this article, we develop a unified conceptual model of these phenomena by connecting three fields of research that traditionally have had little interaction: (a) determinants of social vulnerability to climate change, (b) climatic drivers of armed conflict risk, and (c) societal impacts of armed conflict. In doing so, we demonstrate how many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate–conflict interactions and, furthermore, that impacts from armed conflict aggravate these conditions. The end result may be a vicious circle locking affected societies in a trap of violence, vulnerability, and climate change impacts.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources},
author = {Buhaug, Halvard and Von Uexkull, Nina},
month = oct,
year = {2021},
pages = {545--568},
}
@article{vesco_natural_2020,
title = {Natural resources and conflict: {A} meta-analysis of the empirical literature},
volume = {172},
issn = {09218009},
shorttitle = {Natural resources and conflict},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800919308857},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106633},
abstract = {The link between natural resources and conflict has been extensively analysed by the empirical literature. Yet, there is disagreement on both the existence and the type of relationship connecting resources to conflict. Existing research has focused on demonstrating the impact of resource scarcity or abundance on the risk of conflict, but no effort has explored the reasons behind the persisting disagreement among scholars. This paper seeks to remedy this imbalance by conducting a meta-analysis of the empirical literature that investigates the link between natural resources and conflict. We adopt an econometric approach to analyse {\textgreater} 900 estimates from 41 articles. Our results show that both resource scarcity and abundance are associated with a higher probability of conflict. The direction and magnitude of the relationship depends on the type of resources and whether climate variables are controlled for. Specifically, the impact of the scarcity of agriculturally related resources, such as land and vegetation, seems to be mediated by climate variables. We also find that the way conflicts and resources are operationalized together with methodological choices and model specifications, greatly influence the probability of finding a significant relationship between conflicts and resources.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Ecological Economics},
author = {Vesco, Paola and Dasgupta, Shouro and De Cian, Enrica and Carraro, Carlo},
month = jun,
year = {2020},
pages = {106633},
}
@article{augsten_human_2022,
title = {The human dimensions of the climate risk and armed conflict nexus: a review article},
volume = {22},
issn = {1436-3798, 1436-378X},
shorttitle = {The human dimensions of the climate risk and armed conflict nexus},
url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-022-01888-1},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-022-01888-1},
abstract = {The literature that examines the nexus of climate risk and armed conflict tends to be based on quantitative datasets and focuses on the causal relationship between the two issues. A limited number of studies consider the human dimensions of this nexus, but this literature has not been the subject of a synthesis. This article reviews the research examining the climate risk and armed conflict nexus, with specific emphasis on field studies and qualitative research. It aims to synthesize key findings emerging from the literature in order to shed light on the human dimensions of this nexus. Our analysis focuses on two broad themes: exposure and response. Exposure varies according to regional particularities and across locations while gender and weak political institutions are significant determinants in further increasing vulnerability. Response to the experience of the climate risk and armed conflict nexus consists primarily of various forms of migration. We also draw attention to specific directions for future research efforts to better understand the human dimensions of the climate-conflict nexus. This includes methodological considerations, attention to the anticipated aggravation of geopolitical realities through climate risk, and the identification of countries having a high climate risk index, and which are experiencing ongoing armed conflict.},
language = {en},
number = {2},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
author = {Augsten, Leanna and Gagné, Karine and Su, Yvonne},
month = jun,
year = {2022},
pages = {42},
}
@article{nordas_climate_2007,
title = {Climate change and conflict},
volume = {26},
url = {https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/8254d0815c955b9145d3196dda2819816004269f},
doi = {10.1016/J.POLGEO.2007.06.003},
abstract = {null},
journal = {Political Geography},
author = {Nordås, Ragnhild and Gleditsch, N. P.},
year = {2007},
pages = {627--638},
}
@article{sharifi_three_2021,
title = {Three decades of research on climate change and peace: a bibliometrics analysis},
volume = {16},
issn = {1862-4065, 1862-4057},
shorttitle = {Three decades of research on climate change and peace},
url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11625-020-00853-3},
doi = {10.1007/s11625-020-00853-3},
abstract = {Over the past 3 decades, a vast body of research has been published on the interactions between climate change and events that undermine negative peace. Consequently, several review papers have been published in the last few years on this nexus. However, there is still a lack of a comprehensive bibliometrics analysis of the field. Accordingly, the main aim of this study is to fill this gap to advance our understanding of the existing literature. For this purpose, we analyzed 1337 articles indexed in the Web of Science using VOSviewer and SciMAT that are two commonly used software tools for science mapping and bibliometrics analysis. The SciMAT tool was also used to examine thematic evolution of the nexus over three consecutive sub-periods (i.e., 1990–2007, 2008–2014, and 2015–2020). Results show that research on this nexus has grown steadily since 1990, but the trends have rapidly increased after the publication of the IPCC assessment report in 2007. Four major thematic focus areas were identified, namely, (1) war and violent conflict, (2) political tensions and institutional mechanisms to deal with conflicts, (3) disasters and other climatic impacts that may lead to massive human displacements, and (4) conflicts/ cooperation related to water resources. Results of the SciMAT analysis confirm and add weight to these findings. They also show that, over time, issues related to environmental security have gained more attention. An important finding is that the focus has mainly been on war and violent conflicts and other events are not well addressed. The article concludes with some recommendations for future research.},
language = {en},
number = {4},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Sustainability Science},
author = {Sharifi, Ayyoob and Simangan, Dahlia and Kaneko, Shinji},
month = jul,
year = {2021},
pages = {1079--1095},
}
@article{nagano_review_2023,
title = {Review of {Vulnerability} {Factors} {Linking} {Climate} {Change} and {Conflict}},
volume = {11},
issn = {2225-1154},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/5/104},
doi = {10.3390/cli11050104},
abstract = {This systematic literature review gathers societal vulnerability factors linking climate change and conflict from 53 existing studies. The findings reveal three main points. First, four relevant factors are missing from a previous vulnerability analysis framework proposed by Pearson and Newman: land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions. Second, two factors, access to technology (e.g., for climate change adaptation) and partially democratic states, are insufficiently studied. Third, classification criteria in the previous framework need revision for accuracy. Considering these points, this study proposes a modified vulnerability analysis framework and offers five suggestions for future research directions in climate security research. First, more qualitative case studies are needed to complement the quantitative work. Second, in particular, cases where conflict was avoided or cooperation was established in high vulnerability areas need further research. Third, further research is needed on understudied factors (e.g., access to technology and partial democracy) and on factors the conventional framework cannot explain (e.g., land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions). Fourth, no single vulnerability factor leads to conflict in isolation, but only in interaction; their connections must be studied. Finally, case studies are needed on vulnerability factors in countries and regions that have suffered from climate change but have not experienced conflict.},
language = {en},
number = {5},
urldate = {2024-02-05},
journal = {Climate},
author = {Nagano, Takato and Sekiyama, Takashi},
month = may,
year = {2023},
pages = {104},
}